Super-refinement 


Refinement formula worked for 3 years

Current prediction: 107140 (formula overestimates)
Prefix growth stopped (last few months)
AS refinement faster than predicted by formula
Average prefixes per AS:   8.3, down 4 years
Will eventually have less than one prefix per AS
Already have ASes with 0 announced prefixes
(85 transit-only ASes for Nov 01, 2001, up from 55 a few months ago)