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Internet expansion, refinement, and churn

Archived MagicPoint presentation slides, compiled into a single PDF document.

2002_nanog0202.pdf (48 slides, 5.2 MB)

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Slide 1: Internet expansion

Internet expansion 
refinement and churn


Andre Broido
broido@caida.org, CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD

Evi Nemeth
evi@caida.org, CAIDA and U.Colorado

kc claffy
kc@caida.org, CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD
12 feb 02

Slide 2: Overview

Overview


Data description and caveats
Taxonomy of prefixes (definitions)
Size measures & proportions
Topology changes
Prefix set changes
More specifics 
Multihoming
Routing updates


Acknowledgement: inspired by Jeff Huston's analysis

Slide 3: Data analysis: BGP peer and prefix selection

Data analysis: BGP peer and prefix selection

Select only full-size tables from RouteViews peers
full: > 104K prefixes
filtered: 89-97K prefixes

Prefix selection:
globally routed prefixes (those common to all tables)
semiglobal (found in the majority of backbone tables) 
prefixes dropped by one (few) peers still observed 
prefixes seen only locally won't get into table
more robust than either full or global prefix set
We use only semiglobal prefixes

Slide 4: Caveats:

Caveats:

many metrics are sensitive to prefix/peer choice
important when trends are small and/or undecided
instant and  daily influx or loss of prefixes 
Table sizes differ noticeably (few %) by day

Slide 5: Data sources

Data sources


UOregon ANTC RouteViews BGP tables

Data on or around the 1st of each month
Nov. 1, 2000 (18 tables)
Nov. 1, 2001 (26 tables)
Feb.  1, 2002 (26 tables)
unless otherwise specified

Sampling for prefix analysis:
from 1 year (1997-2001)
to 2 hours (data from the end of 2001.)

Slide 6: Prefix taxonomy

Prefix taxonomy


Prefix types:
standalone -- no subsets/supersets in the table
root -- a least specific route, has subsets in the table
more specific -- a subset of some other prefix

In addition: top prefixes = standalone  + roots

Caveats: 
depends on the prefix set
not an inherent property of a prefix

Slide 7: Bulk and relative measures

Bulk and relative measures

Short term (3 month) trends, Feb.2002 

Semiglobal prefixes:     104K, stable 
Prefix table size is constant for 4 months (-1k)

Smallest blocks (/24s):  55.8%, down
More specifics:                50.3%, down
Trends of 1990s reverted 

ASes:  12570,              up
Transit ASes: 2050,  up
Transit ASes: 16%,   stable

Slide 8: Bulk and relative measures (cont'd)

Bulk and relative measures (cont'd)


AS links in BGP graph: 26046, up
AS links/ASes                  2.06,    stable/down
AS paths/ASes (1 tb.)    1.25,    stable 4 years

Path system very rigid
Less paths than the graph allows
Due to policy constraints & shortest paths

Slide 9: Bulk and relative measures (cont'd)

Bulk and relative measures (cont'd)


ASes with one prefix:                             40%
Prefixes originated by such ASes:      5% 
very small contribution

ASes with over 100 prefixes:                  1% <---"large ASes"
Prefixes originated by such ASes:      32%

Slide 10: Growth in prefixes, ASes, and degree

Growth in prefixes, ASes, and degree 

   		1999      2000    	2001
Semiglobal 
prefixes          	      64769      88714 (+37%)102394  (+15%)
ASes 		        6107         9116 (+50%)  12399  (+36%)
AS links/nodes 
(avg in/outdegree)     1.97           2.00 	     2.07

prefix and AS growth slowed in 2001
prefix growth is close to 2/3 of AS growth
link/node ratio grows slowly, almost invariant

peering richness, and navigation complexity
of BGP AS graph did not significantly change
between Nov 2000 and May 2001, although
there were a lot of changes for individual ASes

Slide 11: Is average AS path length decreasing?

Is average AS path length decreasing?

Since 1999, many AS paths changed either way
Change in the average AS path length is insignificant

Slide 12: Peering richness: changes per AS, not on average

Peering richness: changes per AS, not on average

Slide 13: AS refinement formula: P = 200 A^(2/3)

AS refinement formula: P = 200 A^(2/3)

Slide 14: Super-refinement

Super-refinement 


Refinement formula worked for 3 years

Current prediction: 107140 (formula overestimates)
Prefix growth stopped (last few months)
AS refinement faster than predicted by formula
Average prefixes per AS:   8.3, down 4 years
Will eventually have less than one prefix per AS
Already have ASes with 0 announced prefixes
(85 transit-only ASes for Nov 01, 2001, up from 55 a few months ago)

Slide 15: Prefix distribution: findings

Prefix distribution: findings


Changes in global routing not captured by bulk 
     measures such as number of prefixes in a table

Net change is a sum total of commensurable
     contributions of opposite sign, so...
Total variation is not the difference,
     but rather the sum of their magnitudes. 

Most measures of routing system complexity 
     demonstrate slow growth, dynamic equilibrium 
     and/or decrease for May-Dec. 2001.

         Current state of the Internet routing system
         shows large variation but NOT rapid growth!

Slide 16: Prefix distribution

Prefix distribution


/24 prefixes are the smallest globally routable

Q: Is proportion of /24s in backbone tables growing?
      A: No
Since 1998, the share of /24s has stayed between 57% and 58.5%
Has decreased since then by 0.6%-0.9% in all non-filtered tables

About 1/2 of all prefixes are more specifics (subsets).
1999 50%
2000 55%
2001 52%
2002 50.3%

Slide 17: Prefix distribution: refinement of prefix trees

Prefix distribution: refinement of prefix trees

Prefix type breakdown
(semiglobal prefixes in 26 tables, Nov.01,2001)
standalone          44264     42.75%
root                           5601       5.41%
more specifics    53686     51.84%
total prefixes     103551  100.00%

Percentage of root prefixes grows slowly 
1999   4.64
2000   4.86
2001   5.41

Another refinement phenomenon:
growing share of the table is roots 
constant or decreasing share of more specifics
average number of subblocks of a root is decreasing

Slide 18: Prefix set churn

Prefix set churn


Churn (emergence and disappearance of prefixes
in the table) was much higher than growth rate.
highest for more specifics
lowest for standalone blocks
net change in table size sometimes < 0

semiglobal prefixes in following data uses 
all available RouteViews backbone tables, 
including filtered tables, for 3 sample points: 
May 3, August 1, and November 1, 2001 
(33, 42, and 39 tables, respectively)

Slide 19: Changes in prefix status from May->Aug 2001

Changes in prefix status from May->Aug 2001

transitions are from columns to rows 
from May to August 2001
equal number of prefixes moved from standalones to roots/m.s.'s
more prefixes changed from m.s. to standalone than v.v.
"Vacuum" counts prefixes which appeared or disappeared

           	St.al       Root       M.sp        Vac        Sum        Out
St.al      38676        544          576       2450      42246       8.45
Root         377       4374            40         307         5098     14.20 
M.sp         917            41    42188       8746       51892    18.70 
Vac         4232          420       9206             0       13858  100.00 
In           13.08       19.71      18.93      83.01      99236r 
Sum     44202       5379      52010     11503     101591c

Slide 20: Changes in prefix status from Aug->Nov 2001

Changes in prefix status from Aug->Nov 2001


transitions are from columns to rows 
from August to November 2001
Root prefixes coming mostly from standalone (607 vs. 433 new)
more prefixes changed from standalone to m.s. than v.v. (reversal of May-Aug trend)

           standal.      root   more spec     vac        sum        out
St.al      39530        607       1460       2605      44202      10.57
Root         396       4532        146          305        5379      15.75
M.sp         604           33    41835        9538      52010      19.56
Vac         3738        433     10178               0      14349     100.00 
In           10.72     19.95      22.66      86.75     101591r 
Sum      44268      5605     53619    12448     103492c

Slide 21: Prefix set churn, cont.

Prefix set churn, cont.

May-Aug 2001 (33 (May) and 42 (Aug) RouteViews peers):
           % standalone       % of root    % more spec. 
Out         8.45      	      	14.20        18.70 
In         13.08      	      	19.71        18.93  
Net         4.63       	      	  5.51          0.23 

No growth for more specifics in May-Aug 2001

Aug-Nov 2001 (42 (Aug) and 39 (Nov) RouteViews peers):
           % standalone       % of root       % more spec. 
Out      	10.57         	   15.75        19.56 
In         	10.72         	   19.95        22.66 
Net    	  0.15                  	     4.20          3.09 

No growth for standalones    in Aug-Nov 2001

("In" and "Out" include transitions when existing prefix 
changes its type, e.g., from standalone to more specific)

Slide 22: Growth of non-transit ASes

Growth of non-transit ASes


Transit and non-transit ASes contribute about equal numbers of prefixes despite the fact that there are 5 times as many non-transit ASes as transit ASes.

Transit ASes announce over 1/2 prefixes (53%)

For 1999-2000-2001:  
Fraction of nontransit ASes:                     81%, 83%, 84%
Announcements from nontransit ASes
               (percentage of semiglobal):                 42%, 43%, 46%

Slide 23: Growth of non-transit ASes, cont.

Growth of non-transit ASes, cont.


Q: Does the Internet grow mostly at the periphery?
A: Most likely, although BGP graph may not have 
       enough coverage at network edge to answer

may show transit ASes as nontransit
may undercount indegree (multi-homing)
captures only downstream, not lateral, connectivity
18%, 17%, 16% transit ASes in 1999, 2000, 2001
absolute number grows but proportion shrinks 
bidirectional part of the graph (core): 3.13%, 2.24%, 2.09%
compare to skitter (traceroute-based) AS graph: 
32% transit ASes, twice as many as BGP graph
28% ASes in combinatorial core (BGP: 2%)

Slide 24: Multihomed ASes

Multihomed ASes

Definitions: AS with indegree > 1 in BGP AS graph is called multihomed
                        AS with outdegree > 0 in BGP AS graph is called transit

BGP gives only a lower bound on multi-homing, 
although a consistent one 
(26 vs. 39 tables differ by 0.3% in multi-homed ASes)

For Nov 01, 2001 RouteViews data, multihomed networks originated
76% of all prefixes 
74% of all more specific (subset) prefixes
includes transit & non-transit
multihomed nets originate a proper fraction of more specifics
Non-transit multihomed ASes contribute less prefixes than their fair share: 
                  Year    %AS     %prefixes
                  1999    43.65    27.46
                  2000    45.84    29.37
                  2001    48.75    29.74
Fraction of non-transit multihomed ASes grew in 1999-2001
Fraction of prefixes grew in 1999-2000, was constant in 2000-2001

Slide 25: Transit AS prefixes by type (Nov.01 2001, 26 tables)

Transit AS prefixes by type (Nov.01 2001, 26 tables)

Prefixes from transit multihomed ASes: 
standalone        23801   49.28%
root                         3723     7.71%
more specific   20777   43.02%
total                     48301  100.00%   --> 46.64% of all prefixes

Prefixes from transit singlehomed ASes: 
standalone         2608    37.74%
root                          344      4.98%
more specific    3958     57.28%
total                      6910   100.00%  --> 6.67% of all prefixes

Slide 26: Non-transit AS prefixes by type

Non-transit AS prefixes by type


Prefixes from non-transit multihomed ASes: 
standalone           10715    34.80%
root                              999      3.24%
more specifics    19080    61.96%
total                        30794  100.00% --> 29.74% of all prefixes

Prefixes from non-transit singlehomed ASes: 
standalone             6507     39.51%
root                             452        2.74%
more specifics      9509      57.74%
total                        16468   100.00% --> 15.90% of all prefixes

Slide 27: New top prefixes

New top prefixes


New address space announcements and deaggregation of existing prefixes were two major sources of new root and standalone prefixes between Nov 2000-May 2001.

Slide 28: Multihomed ASes and traffic engineering

Multihomed ASes and traffic engineering


Q: Are extra routes introduced for traffic engineering?
A: Yes, but only a minority 
Multihomed ASes originating on one link
Nov.01, 2001, 26 tables; multiorigin prefixes are excluded
22.2% of all prefixes
15.8% of all top prefixes
28.6% of all more specifics
more specifics are announced on one link more frequently
6-12% more specifics may be traffic engineered splinter blocks
Majority of semiglobal prefixes are announced on all available connections
Largest groups:
On 1 connection  for singly homed AS,    22.6%
On 2 connections for doubly homed AS, 15.8%
On 3 connections for triply homed AS,     31.1%
On 2 connections for triply homed AS,       7.3%
(triply homed = indegree >= 3)

Slide 29: More specifics and traffic engineering

More specifics and traffic engineering


traffic engineering would imply the more specific announced on only one connection
some more specifics are involved in traffic engineering, but most of them aren't

Slide 30: Routing changes: Oct -Nov 2001

Routing changes: Oct -Nov 2001


Semiglobal prefixes, 26 full size backbone tables

104555  prefixes on Oct 01 
103815  prefixes on Nov 30
Union:   137374

There are lots of 
flips (withdrawals and reannouncements)
transients (initial announcements and final withdrawals)

Slide 31: Flips (reannouncements after withdrawals)

Flips (reannouncements after withdrawals)


                                                 number  % of total	% of Oct01
Long-lived:                            93127            67.79%           89.07%
Apparently emerged:          32819           23.89%           31.39% 
Apparently disapp.:            33559           24.43%           32.10%
Transients (came&went):   22131          16.11%            21.17% 
Entries            w.a flip:          31007          22.57% 
Long-lived entries w.a flip: 20951          15.25% 
Long-lived entries'   flips:   35591          60.06% (of flips)
Transient  entries w.a flip:    3743           2.72% 
Transient  entries'   flips:      9285          15.67% (of flips)

long-lived + emerged + disappeared - transients = total observed = 137K

Slide 32: Flips (/24's flip more frequently; /21-24's most transients)

Flips (/24's flip more frequently; /21-24's most transients)

Pf.len   prefxs      flp.pf      flips       trans  %all %flp.pfs %flips   %trans
      1               1              0              0              1       0.00       0.00        0.00        0.00
      2               1              0              0              1       0.00       0.00        0.00        0.00
      8             28              8          264            11       0.02       0.03        0.45        0.05
      9               5              0              0               0      0.00       0.00        0.00        0.00
     10              9              0              0               1      0.01       0.00        0.00        0.00
     11             12             1              2               0      0.01       0.00        0.00        0.00
     12             39             8            12               1      0.03       0.03        0.02        0.00
     13             95           13            21               0     0.07       0.04        0.04        0.00
     14           236           27            43               5     0.17       0.09        0.07        0.02
     15           410           55            81               5     0.30       0.18        0.14        0.02
     16         7387       1256       1966           115     5.38       4.05        3.32        0.52
     17         1452         203         302             62     1.06       0.65        0.51        0.28
     18         2605         401         581           115     1.90       1.29        0.98        0.52
     19         7450       1213       1792          203      5.42       3.91        3.02        0.92
     20         6852       1737       3981          356      4.99       5.60        6.72        1.61
     21         7176       1193       1866        2009      5.22       3.85        3.15        9.08
     22         8803       1792       3367        1169      6.41       5.78        5.68        5.28
     23       11636       2600       4503        2028      8.47       8.39        7.60        9.16
     24       83177     20500     40480     16049    60.55     66.11      68.31      72.52
Total    137374     31007     59261     22131   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00
The fraction of flips in /24 range is larger than fair share
But not overwhelmingly large

Slide 33: Flips in /24s per class (A,B,C)

Flips in /24s per class (A,B,C)

Statistics of /24s
  Class      /24s  flp.pfs        flips   %/24s %fpg/24s  %allfp P{fp|cl}
      A     11266       1890        3338     13.54      9.22        8.25    16.78
      B       6666       2034        4587       8.01      9.92      11.33    30.51
      C     65245     16576     32555     78.44     80.86     80.42    25.41
Total   83177     20500     40480   100.00   100.00   100.00  24.65

Slide 34: Flips per lifetime of a prefix

Flips per lifetime of a prefix

   #) AS          Av.#pf   Flips Fp/Kupt Fp/Klft  Pc.fp Acc.pc    NewAnn TmpW/drw   Reann   FinW/hdr
   1) 4323        421.72    1466       4.89     4.59    2.47   2.47            34        	52        	51        	16
   2) 752              3.60    1444  564.72  335.58    2.44   4.91              1        659         658              2
   3) 701        2196.94   1379      0.88       0.82    2.33   7.24          101        351         350            91
   4) 702         956.48       924     1.36       1.32     1.56   8.80            68       373          346           45
   5) 3908       652.29     921      1.99        1.79     1.55 10.35           63        105         109           43
   6) 705         397.04     661      2.34        2.18     1.12  11.47          62       162          165            46
   7) 1580       180.75     613      4.77        4.36     1.03  12.50            5       147          144              7
   8) 3475         28.91     540    26.27      21.79     0.91  13.41          23       237          238            22
   9) 4755       308.19     510     2.33         2.20     0.86  14.27           31      195          180             31
  10) 8708      161.29     497     4.33        4.14      0.84  15.11           21        52            59             19
  18) 8112        48.03     378   11.07        8.71      0.64  20.58             7          7              7               4
  27) 724        244.60     278      1.60       1.56      0.47  25.14           12        76            81             11
  39) 1239      692.89     190      0.39       0.38      0.32  30.21           55        94            90             33
  56) 13609    109.98     150      1.92       1.90      0.25  35.03          14        40            40               4
  80) 18618      64.45     114      2.49       2.45      0.19  40.17             1        10              9               2
 110) 7629       21.04       83      5.55       5.40      0.14  45.10             7        22            23               6
 150) 11623       6.90       66    13.46    13.26       0.11 50.01             0        12            12               0
 201) 9800     104.11      52       0.70      0.70       0.09 55.07             6        18            17               2
 266) 11554     18.78      39       2.92      2.90       0.07 60.01             0          3              3               1
 356) 17625       6.84      29       5.97      4.97       0.05 65.05             4          7              9               3
 399) 10223     42.14      25       0.83     0.83       0.04  67.01             1        10           10               2
 478) 600          89.94      20       0.31    0.31        0.03  70.01            1        17           17                1
 654) 6539      239.63     15       0.09    0.09        0.03  75.02            6        10           10                3
 902) 224          14.94     10       0.94    0.94        0.02  80.00             0        10           10                1
1262) 2508         1.16       7       8.47    4.92        0.01  85.01             0          7             7                0
Total origins of flips: 5259 AS.  Sum of temp. w/draw AS events:  22657. Reannouncement:  22816
All AS initiating temp. withrawals: 5259. Reannouncing AS: 5259
Note: when a prefix changes origin, an interval of AS lifetime sum is lost

Slide 35: Several origin ASes over time

Several origin ASes over time

   #) #or.AS  # Prefixes
   1)      1          130786
   2)      2               4901
   3)      3               1500
   4)      4                    96
   5)      5                    50
   6)      6                    16
   7)      7                    17
   8)      8                      5
   9)      9                      1
  10)     11                    1
  11)     12                    1
       Total          137374                            
6588 prefixes changed hands (origin or some of origins)
4220 prefixes were multiorigin (at least once)
3861 ( 91.49% of above) multiorigin prefixes also changed hands

multi-origin prefixes are highly dynamic, some may be
artifacts of convergence to a new origin at snapshot time

Slide 36: BGP table change contributors (summary)

BGP table change contributors (summary)


ASes with new and/or (temporarily) lost prefixes
sum total of all changes in prefix status
50% of (all) changes from 127 most "dynamic" ASes
Sorted by total lost+found prefix occurrences
for Oct-Nov 2001 (61 days, 2 hour int, 711 tables)

Slide 37: BGP table change: top 10 contributors

BGP table change: top 10 contributors


                                                                                                             2-hour intervals with changes
   type  ASN      Av.#pf    ap+ds  a+d           a+d    %a+d cum         new      tmp    reapp   final
                                                     /Kupt         /Klft             %a+d         app       disp                  disp

 1 Bac      701     2196.94    6790    4.35       4.04    3.67    3.67       101       351       350        91
 2 Bac    3908       652.29    5915  12.75     11.49   3.20    6.87         63       105       109         43
 3 AOL   4323       421.72    3236  10.79    10.14    1.75   8.62          34          52        51         16
 4 Bac    1239       692.89    3199    6.49        6.47   1.73  10.35        55          94         90         33
 5 Res      752            3.60    2893 1131.4  672.32   1.56  11.92           1       659       658           2
 6 Bac      702       956.48    2883     4.24      4.12    1.56  13.48        68        373       346         45
 7 Tech     71          46.22    2589   78.79    77.60    1.40  14.88          3           10        10           6
 8 Bac     705        397.04    2409     8.53      7.94    1.30  16.18        62         162      165        46
 9 Bac   4999          21.64    1493   97.02    28.93    0.81  16.99          6             2           2           6
10 Mil  1580        180.75    1448   11.27    10.30    0.78  17.77          5        147       144           7

(ap = appeared, ds = disappeared)

Both background noise and storm-like events are present

Slide 38: BGP table change contributors: prefix flips (reannouncements after withdrawals)

BGP table change contributors: prefix flips (reannouncements after withdrawals)

50% flips from 150 ASes (3% of 5259 flipping ASes)
75% flips from 12.4% ASes
#events for AOL larger than for other ASes
not just background noise
                         					Cum
   type    ASN        Av.#pf   Flips Fp/Kupt Fp/Klft  %fps %fps  newap tmpdisp  re-app   finaldisp
 1 AOL  4323        421.72    1466      4.89      4.59   2.47   2.47        34          52         51        16
 2 Res     752             3.60    1444 564.72  335.58   2.44   4.91           1       659       658          2
 3 Bac     701      2196.94    1379      0.88      0.82   2.33   7.24       101       351       350        91
 4 Bac     702         956.48     924      1.36      1.32   1.56   8.80         68       373       346        45
 5 Bac   3908        652.29      921      1.99      1.79   1.55  10.35        63       105       109        43
 6 Bac     705         397.04     661      2.34      2.18   1.12  11.47        62       162       165        46
 7 Mil   1580         180.75     613      4.77      4.36   1.03  12.50           5       147       144          7
 8 Mil   3475           28.91     540     26.27   21.79   0.91  13.41        23       237       238        22
 9 Dev   4755        308.19     510      2.33      2.20   0.86  14.27        31       195       180        31
10 Dev  8708        161.29     497      4.33      4.14   0.84  15.11        21        52          59        19

Under best conditions, a prefix flips once in 3 months
Aside: global (all-peer) prefixes have twice as much flux as semiglobal (flux estimates depend on the prefix set)

Slide 39: analysis of BGP updates

analysis of BGP updates
now we look at granularity of individual BGP updates
RouteViews started archiving October 2001
we analyze BGP updates over one month (Nov 2001)
15 min updates per file, 22 peers contribute
Contribution sizes span an order of magnitude
use 50K cutoff to avoid events like full-table transmission
leaves about 90% of all time intervals (2434 out of 2711)
and about 2/3 of all packets

Results:
Announcements more frequent than withdrawals
Many whole table transmissions, O(100K) prefixes
Weekly and diurnal variations clearly visible
Match traffic pattern on the 'Net
Traffic load translates into path fluctuations
Is it human intervention or automatic tools output?

Slide 40: BGP updates over one month

BGP updates over one month 
withdrawal vs announcemts (and some full table updates)

Slide 41: BGP prefix announcements

BGP prefix announcements 

ann/prefix related to counts of 15-min.int, esp. at the cusp

Slide 42: BGP prefix announcements/withdrawals

BGP prefix announcements/withdrawals 


Nov 2001 RouteViews
2711 files (no cutoff for #announcements per file)

total packets: 			30M
packets with announcements     28.2M
packets with withdrawals       1,955,188
packets with both 	           127,429
total announcements                    83.5M
total withdrawals                           11.7M
average announcements/packet     2.7736
average withdrawals/packet             0.3874
average withdrawals/wd.packet      5.9615
15X as many announcement as withdraws
15X as many withdraws as ann.&withdraw
withdrawals packed at prefixes/AS path ratio of ~6.5

Slide 43: Dependence between packets seen & bgp announcements

Dependence between packets seen & bgp announcements

some AS paths update 100s of prefixes at once

Slide 44: packing of prefixes into announcements

packing of prefixes into announcements

two regions:  full tables (blue) and incremental updates (green)

Slide 45: BGP updates contributors

BGP updates contributors


Q: Are small ASes major contributors of BGP updates?

A: The bulk of BGP announcements comes from  ISPs
who announce many (tens to hundreds) prefixes:

backbone providers
government networks
ISPs in developing nations 
ISPs in Canada and US

Large batches of announcements often contain
deaggregated intervals of IP space (as in
"avoiding a small block" scenario)

Slide 46: Top 10 announcers, Nov 2001

Top 10 announcers, Nov 2001

   type              ASN                  #Anns  %ann  cum%  /15mi 
 1 ISP Can         852               777540     1.40     1.40        732 
 2 Dev Eu     12302               578932     1.05     2.45        681   
 3 Mil               6595               564201     1.02     3.47     1622   
 4 Bac                577                508675     0.92     4.39     1085 
 5 Dev Asia    4755                471458     0.85     5.24     1985   
 6 Bac                702                436282     0.79     6.02     2421   
 7 Dev SAm  20043                 412334     0.74     6.77      749    
 8 Gov ZA       2018                 370335     0.67     7.44      337 
 9 Gov             2572                 365096     0.66     8.10      592   
10 Bac            6453                  346551     0.63     8.72   2442   

top 2 announce 538 and 102 prefixes, resp. (backbones up to 2K)
announcements are spread across time, not just storms
reminder: only 1% of ASes announce >100 prefixes

Slide 47: Conclusions

Conclusions



Internet undergoes refinement process 
Some bulk measures are stable
Others change slowly 
Opposite trends cancel each other
More churn than bulk measures suggest
Internet churn comes from everywhere
mostly from large ISPs, .gov/.mil, and developing nation telecoms
Small ASes generate little churn and table growth
Invariant or almost invariant relations do exist
e.g. AS paths/AS ratio 


still a lot left to analyze...

Slide 48: www.caida.org/publications/presentations/

www.caida.org/publications/presentations/

Andre Broido
kc claffy
UCSD/SDSC/CAIDA
kc@caida.org
www.caida.org

Related Objects

See https://catalog.caida.org/media/2002_nanog0202/ to explore related objects to this document in the CAIDA Resource Catalog.